A tropical storm As it advances west, Erin, which is still churning closer to the African coast than the American or Caribbean, is predicted to develop into a powerful hurricane by the weekend. Flagler County Emergency Management Director Jonathan Lord stated today that it is not anticipated to be a threat to the Florida Peninsula, including Flagler County. However, he cautioned that Erin is too far gone to rule out a more difficult turn.
Tropical storm During a hurricane-preparedness expo held this morning at the Palm Coast Community Center, Lord stated that Erin is expected to be the first significant hurricane of our hurricane season. Long before Erin chromosomed out of African dust last Saturday, the expo was planned. Lord claimed that the only reason it is making headlines is because it will be the first significant hurricane. According to the Lord, unpredictable turns are not a concern for our communities.
However, he warned that after seven days, the storm forecast is not accurate. Around day six or seven is when Erin is expected to make a dramatic turn to the north from the Antilles. Erin will move north far to the east of the American land mass, per the American forecast (see the animation at the top of this post). According to the National Hurricane Center, higher seat temperatures will turn it into a major hurricane. Lord stated that a few models indicated the storm was heading further west before the consensus forecast was established. But, he argued, those are outliers.
Over the weekend, Erin might pass near enough to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands to have some effect on them. However, according to the National Hurricane Center’s afternoon projection, the extent of those consequences is still unknown. The effects that could be felt in parts of the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the US east coast, and Bermuda next week are much less definite. This is a good time to make sure your preparations are in place as the hurricane season’s climatological peak draws near.
“Water temperatures in much of the Atlantic main development region are sufficiently warm to support tropical development and even rapid intensification,” said Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert at AccuWeather. In many locations, surface temperatures and temperatures hundreds of feet below the surface are higher than the historical average. We are approaching the period of time from mid-August to mid-October when ocean temperatures usually reach their warmest point of the year.
